Monday, December 17, 2012
A Lesson in How NOT to Negotiate-The “Fiscal Cliff” and Washington
Yes,
we are all (most of us) freaked out by what is happening in Washington. We can
all improve our negotiating abilities by watching Washington bumble their way
toward the fiscal cliff.
I have
taught negotiation for years, including to individuals and corporate
leaders, at several businesses, and to members of business SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) teams. I have
worked with groups at an impasse that appeared worse than what is happening in
Washington. Many ended up with agreements that got more than either side
originally wanted. That's not only possible, it is commonplace, provided people
avoid four pitfalls.
Pitfall
#1: Confuse a negotiation with a debate. In a
negotiation, your goal is a settlement that is the best possible for all concerned.
The research is overwhelming that if you take care of the other side's
interests, in addition to your own, you will get a better deal, and better future
deals, than if you just try to beat your opponent. People often ask me to “play
out” a great negotiation. When I do, people ask: When do we get to the good
parts? Good negotiations make awful television. No "gotchas," no
moments of outrage and no sound bite. What you see is a bunch of people having
a cordial and constructive working session around a table.
In
debates, the goal is to score points with an audience. You don't really care
what the other side thinks or feels. In fact, the more wounded they appear, the
better for you (as long as you don't push it too far and make your audience
think you are a bully). When people who should be negotiating debate instead,
they do lots of press conferences and speak in sound bites, often with laughter
in the background.
In the
case of the "fiscal cliff" talks, each side complains about the
other, releases word that people laughed out loud when seeing what the other
side offered, and makes its opponent seem crazy and irresponsible. Debates make
great television.
If
this were a debate, the Democrats would be winning, according to most recent
polls -- most Americans would blame the Republicans if the country drives off
the cliff. But since it's a negotiation instead, we're all losing. This
approach appears to force the Republicans to give up one of their key points,
which takes us to the second pitfall.
Pitfall
#2: Go into a negotiation with a few elements you must have, or there's no
point in even sitting down. Some of the
best negotiators I have ever met work in law enforcement, usually as part of
SWAT (Special Weapons And Tactics) teams or teams of behavioral scientists supporting SWAT members. Do people
really ask for helicopters and safe passage to Mexico, like in the movies? Last
time I asked that question, over lunch with a friend who is a police officer,
they burst out laughing. "Not really," was their answer.
"But
what would you do if someone asked?" "Get through it," they
said, and referred to a technique called "click down". You ask why
the helicopter is important. The likely answer would be: "to get away,
idiot!" Humor me. "How do you see getting away playing out?"
"I want to be treated with respect," might be the answer, and an
ideal response to that is, "you have our respect, or else we wouldn't be
talking." The person is then likely to talk much more reasonably about
what happens next. Why? It is because it was never about the helicopter. It was
about respect. When they were shown it, the need for the unrealistic demand
went away.
Part
of the problem here is that many Republicans signed Grover Norquist's "no
new taxes" pledge. I wrote a year ago that revoking that agreement was
necessary to deal with our financial situation, and should be done with honor.
To be
clear, the fact that people signed this pledge is fine -- it's in line with a
political and economic philosophy many of us (myself included) agree with. It
is a problem because it prevents responding to unforeseen crises. There was a
time when many Democrats would have signed a pledge to not enter wars. That
also would have been reasonable, given a philosophy many of us (myself
included) agree with. And if the world changed, as it has many times in the
last 100 years, the pledge would need to be revoked to deal with Pearl Harbor,
the rise of the Nazis or if Syria uses chemical weapons on its own people.
With
that agreement in place, the next pitfall is almost inevitable.
Pitfall
#3: Confuse positions with core values. I
encourage leaders to never bend on their core values, but to make sure it is
their values they are honoring, not their gut feeling that their adversaries
are idiots. In this case, Democrats talk as if compromise is a core value (it
is not), and Republicans talk as if not raising taxes is a core value (it also is
not). The way to get past this confusion is for one side to ask why their
position (what they say they want) is so important to them. Democrats would
respond that compromise is important to get an agreement. Why is getting an
agreement important? Because it's our responsibility to get one, they might
say. And why is responsibility important? It just is, when a value circles back
on itself, we're talking about a core value. And what about the need to
increase taxes on people over a certain income level? The core value is
fairness.
On the
Republican side, why is no new taxes important? Because many conservatives
believe that taxes slow growth and discourage investments by small businesses. Why
is growth so important? Because people want to grow their businesses, and we
all want to grow the economy, but will not if government gets in the way, their
thinking goes. And why is keeping government out of the way important? It is because
it's about liberty. And why is that important? Because it is -- so it's a core
value.
Jonathan
Haidt mapped liberal and conservative values in his "Moral
Foundations Theory." Liberals (and many Democrats) value care
and fairness. Conservatives (and many Republicans) tend to value a broader
cluster of issues, including fairness, liberty and authority.
Imagine
what would happen if both sides agreed to build a solution to the fiscal cliff
based on the core values of growth, liberty, responsibility and fairness. There
would be tradeoffs, but that's a much easier process than to sit people down
who abhor each other and lock the door until they get an agreement. They might
eat each other first.
Pitfall
#4: Thinking (and saying) that this negotiation has to be hard. My years of negotiation consulting, teaching and
study have taught me one thing: If you follow a simple process, negotiations
can move so quickly that the progress is stunning. President Barack Obama has
said an agreement could be done in a week. If the people came together and
clicked down on the other sides' positions (what they say they want) and then
formed a settlement based on a small set of core values, here's what would
likely happen: formation of a plan that would target national policy on the
goal of creating a thriving economy, that is as fair to everyone as we can get,
because we have the responsibility to give our children something better than
we have.
This
process could be done in half a day. I have seen it happen in some of the
hardest situations in the world in under an hour, when people finally decided
to stop debating and start negotiating.
We are
facing a national crisis that none of us have chosen. As others and I wrote as
the housing crash laid waste to the economy, a crisis is a terrible thing to
waste. By "crisis," I mean a situation of uncertainty. We need uncertainty,
because without it we would just get more of the same partisan divide, people
telling the media (and us) that they could get this done if only the other side
was more accommodating and responsible. So the crisis is here.
We can
use this latest crisis to create tribes of leaders -- not just politicians --
in Washington if we demand that they avoid these four pitfalls. Really, this is
not that hard.
I
would love to hear from you! What
is your take on all of this?
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